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Prediction for CME (2024-02-06T13:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-06T13:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29015/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the north in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source eruption is seen as a filament centered around N45E05 lifting off in SDO AIA 304 around 2024-02-06T09:33Z. Dimming can also be seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. | CME arrival note: Brief increases in B_total, temperature, and solar wind speed. Possible flux rope signatures are present in magnetic field parameters following arrival start time. Density increases prior to the arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-10T08:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-10T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29017/1
Model Inputs:
2024-02-06T13:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=45.0, Speed=479.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2024-02-06T21:17Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-02-10T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-10T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240206_211700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 84.52 hour(s)
Difference: 0.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-02-06T19:53Z

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